In Cruz vs. Trump, One Iowa Number Matters Most

Despite Ted Cruz trying to shame Iowa residents into coming out to vote in Monday's caucuses, he may not want too many of them to show up, unless he knows for sure they're voting for him. Per Politico, voter turnout will prove critical in the race between him and Donald Trump on Monday night, with a "magic number" of sorts perhaps determining who the winner is. And there seems to be general consensus: The more people who turn up, the greater the chance Trump emerges the victor.

The site notes that Republican operatives are pinning the "tipping point" between the two contenders at somewhere between 135,000 and 150,000 voters. "If that number goes well above [135,000], Donald Trump has a shot," says Iowa Rep. Steve King, who's been stumping for Cruz. "If that number is that or below that, Ted Cruz is in control." Which may prove bad news for Cruz: A Monmouth University poll from last week predicts 170,000 will turn out Monday night—well above the record 122,000 the GOP brought out in in 2012. (Turnout could be key for Bernie Sanders, too.)