Nebraskan Dashes GOP Plan to Aid Trump in Electoral Count

UPDATE Sep 23, 2024 3:08 PM CDT

A state legislator has dealt the Republican Party a major setback—possibly decisive—in its effort to change the way the state distributes its electoral votes to favor Donald Trump. The matter is largely in the hands of Sen. Mike McDonnell, a Republican, and he announced Monday that he will oppose giving Nebraska a winner-take-all system, the Hill reports. "After deep consideration, it is clear to me that right now, 43 days from Election Day, is not the moment to make this change," McDonnell said. It's a different matter after the November election, he suggested. McDonnell said he will encourage fellow legislators to approve a constitutional amendment next year making the change, which would send the issue to Nebraska's voters.

Sep 22, 2024 8:00 AM CDT

A bizarre political scenario is playing out in Nebraska with potentially huge implications for the 2024 presidential vote. And at the moment, a single state senator appears to hold all the cards. The situation, which revolves around how the state allocates its five electoral votes, takes a little unpacking:

• Current rules: Nebraska doesn't use a winner-take-all approach to awarding its electoral votes, reports Axios. Instead, some are doled out by congressional districts. (Maine is the only other state to do this.) Assuming this doesn't change, Donald Trump would likely take four of the votes, while Kamala Harris would pick up one for the district around Omaha.

• Rule change? State and national Republicans, along with Trump and the state's GOP governor, are pushing state lawmakers to change the rules before election day to switch to a winner-take-all formula. However, the votes aren't there. The New York Times reports that a GOP state senator from Omaha, Mike McDonnell, remains unswayed—though he says he's still open to changing his mind. If McDonnell flips, the change looks assured of passing (and Trump looks assured of picking up all five votes instead of four).
• The stakes: One measly electoral vote may not seem consequential. But consider what happens if Harris wins the "blue wall" of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, and loses the other battleground states of of Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. Under this "perfectly plausible" scenario, per the Times, Harris would edge Trump 270-268 in electoral college votes. But if Nebraska were to change its rules, the two candidates would likely be tied 269-269, and the House would decide the winner—which would likely be Trump, per NBC News. (It's not a certainty, however: It would depend on the makeup of the new House after the November vote.)
• The push: "I want the law changed," said GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham, who traveled to Nebraska this week to make a personal pitch to lawmakers, per the Washington Post. "They were open-minded. I said: 'Listen, it's your decision to make. It comes down to one electoral vote. I want you to understand what that one vote would mean.'"

(More Election 2024 stories.)