Trump Flips Harris' Lead in Two Blue Wall States

He's up in Michigan and Wisconsin in Quinnipiac poll, and he's trimmed her lead in Pennsylvania
By John Johnson,  Newser Staff
Posted Oct 10, 2024 8:57 AM CDT
Polls Suggests 'Blue Wall' Trouble for Democrats
Vice President Kamala Harris, left, on Aug. 7, 2024, and former President Trump on July 31, 2024.   (AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)

A new poll suggests Kamala Harris' fortunes in the all-important "Blue Wall" of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin are slipping a bit. The races, however, remain within razor-thin margins. In the Quinnipiac University poll conducted October 3-7:

  • Pennsylvania: Harris leads 49-46, down from her 51-45 lead in September.
  • Michigan: Trump leads 50-47; in September, Harris led 50-45.
  • Wisconsin: Trump leads 48-46; in September, Harris led 48-47.

"The results represent troubling signs for Democrats: Harris' lead appears to be shrinking in key battlegrounds as Election Day approaches," writes Kierra Frazier at Politico. As Quinnipiac polling analyst Tim Malloy puts it: "The Harris post-debate starburst dims to a glow as Harris enters the last weeks slipping slightly in the Rust Belt." An Axios analysis by Mike Allen and Jim VandeHei notes that Harris' recent media blitz doesn't "seem to be moving the the needle much, if it all," and the stagnation is showing up in the polls.

Much of the focus in coverage centers on Pennsylvania, which both campaigns see as the likeliest to tip the election, reports the New York Times. Proof of that is evident in campaign spending: Harris and Trump, along with their allies, are on track to spend $350 million on TV ads in the state, roughly $140 million more than the next closest state (Michigan) and more than Michigan and Wisconsin combined. (More Election 2024 stories.)

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