Earth's climate clock is ticking, with scientists warning we have only three years left to keep global warming below the crucial 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold if emissions stay steady. A new assessment from more than 60 leading climate scientists warns that the world could use up its remaining "carbon budget"—the amount of carbon dioxide that can be emitted while still having a 50% shot at limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celcius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit)—within three years if emissions remain at current levels, per the BBC. This target was set by nearly 200 countries in the 2015 Paris Agreement to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.
Despite that pledge, global coal, oil, and gas use has continued at record levels, along with ongoing deforestation, making the goal increasingly unlikely, according to the report's lead author, Piers Forster, director of the Priestley Centre for Climate Futures at the University of Leeds. Since 2020, the remaining carbon budget has shrunk from 500 billion to 130 billion metric tons, mostly due to ongoing emissions and better climate data. At the present rate of about 40 billion metric tons of CO2 released each year, this budget will run out in roughly three years.
The report notes that in 2024, the global average temperature was already more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above late 1800s levels for the first time in a single year, though the Paris Agreement considers longer-term averages. The pace of warming, now about 0.27 degrees Celsius per decade, is faster than at any point in the geological record. Researchers say the planet is on track to consistently hit the 1.5 degrees Celsius mark around 2030. The authors caution against relying on future carbon removal technologies to undo the damage, emphasizing the importance of immediate and steep emissions cuts. (This content was created with the help of AI. Read our AI policy.)
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