A new study suggests that the best indicator of how long you'll live isn't buried in a complex list of medical tests or hidden among the hundreds of biomarkers that longevity-obsessed tech millionaires track. Instead, it comes down to a much simpler metric: how much you move each day. Researchers from the University of Colorado, Johns Hopkins, and other institutions analyzed data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), zeroing in on 3,600 people ages 50 to 80, per Outside. Each participant wore a wrist activity tracker, which allowed scientists to compare daily movement against 14 other common health risk factors—think diabetes, heart disease, and even age.
The most powerful predictor of survival? Physical activity, beating out demographic info like race or educational level, smoking status and alcohol consumption, preexisting medical conditions, and yes, even how old you are. While it's long been said that exercise is good for you, these findings highlight that the sheer amount and vigor of daily movement matter more than most traditional metrics. The American Heart Association has even previously pushed for cardiorespiratory fitness to be treated as a vital sign by doctors during regular checkups. The new research expands on this by showing that how much you move is largely under your control—a key difference from factors like genetics.
The overarching (if somewhat ominous and perhaps hyperbolic) message, per Outside: "Move or die." The study does note a wrinkle: Consumer fitness trackers may not offer the same raw data as research devices, meaning your Apple Watch's "activity" score isn't a perfect proxy. Still, simply moving more—whether it's structured exercise or general activity like taking a stroll or doing housework—appears to be the most actionable step you can take if you're angling for a longer life.
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