CNN Pollster Warns Dems Need 'Reality Check' on Midterms

GOP is on a better pace at this point in polling cycle than for 2006, 2018 midterms, per Harry Enten
Posted Jul 17, 2025 7:11 AM CDT
CNN Pollster Warns Dems Need 'Reality Check' on Midterms
Stock photo of the US Capitol.   (Getty Images/YayaErnst)

The 2026 midterms are now peeking over the horizon, and rumblings have already begun on who will gain (or keep) control of the House and Senate. Democrats in particular may need a "reality check," according to CNN polling expert Harry Enten, who's raising the red flag on the party's numbers, per NJ.com. Enten says that by this point in the cycle for both the 2006 and 2018 midterms, Dems had a 7-point advantage on a generic ballot, as compared to just 2 points now. "Seat-by-seat analysis actually reveals more GOP pickup opportunities than Dems!" Enten notes. More:

  • Backup: Bolstering Enten's warning is a new poll from Napolitan News Service and RMG Research and cited by Newsweek that shows voters choosing Republicans over Democrats on a generic ballot by 52% to 44%. In April, the Dems were the ones up by 5 points, 50% to 45%.

  • Rarin' to go: It's not all ominous for Dems—a new SSRS poll conducted for CNN finds that 72% of Democrat-leaning voters consider themselves "extremely motivated" to vote in the midterms, compared to 50% of those aligned with the GOP.
  • Trump pollster: It's also not great news from the president's favored Fabrizio Ward polling firm, either, per the Daily Beast. That group's recent survey of 1,000 registered voters in more than two dozen of the most competitive House districts finds that, in a generic ballot, 44% of respondents would rather vote for a Democrat over a Republican (41%).
  • GOP's 'big beautiful bill': Republicans apparently plan on using Trump's recently greenlit tax and spending legislation as the anchor for their midterms campaigning. "It's our agenda," RNC Chair Michael Whatley told Fox News Digital on Wednesday. "We won in 2024 because President Trump said that he was going to rebuild our economy. He's going to restore our southern border. He's going to keep our kids in our community safe, and he's going to make America the strongest country on the planet. This bill is the embodiment of that agenda."
  • Vance push: The vice president is already using the legislation in his own midterms push, per NBC News, advising a crowd in Pennsylvania this week that they should "go talk to your neighbors, go and talk to your friends about what this bill does for American citizens." He added: "We don't want to wake up in a year and a half and give the Democrats power back."
  • No 'silver bullet' for Dems: If that party is banking on backlash against the GOP bill to drive their midterm success, it may want to look more closely at that strategy, per Politico. That's mainly because work requirements don't go into effect until 2027 and financing changes are delayed until 2028, while tax breaks will come sooner—meaning Americans won't start feeling the full brunt of the legislation's negative effects until after 2026 polls have closed.

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