Americans who buy their health insurance through Affordable Care Act marketplaces, also known as ObamaCare, can expect a steep jump in premiums next year, according to a new analysis from health policy group KFF. The research finds that the average premium will climb by 75%, largely due to the expiration of federal subsidies that have kept costs down since the pandemic, per NPR. The Wall Street Journal also cites KFF stats for rate requests for the largest ACA plans in 17 states where such filings have already gone public, finding double-digit premium spikes in many of them, including a requested 27% hike in Illinois by Blue Cross and Blue Shield.
Insurers typically submit their rate proposals for the following year over the summer. This time around, their filings focus less on rising drug or hospital costs and more on the federal policy shift—the end of enhanced premium tax credits. These subsidies were a pandemic-era policy under the Biden administration, driving premiums lower and fueling record enrollment; 24 million people were using ACA plans as of January, helping bring the uninsured rate to historic lows. But with the subsidies now set to disappear, even healthy individuals could see their monthly costs rise sharply—jumping from, say, $60 to $105.
Experts warn that higher premiums may prompt healthier customers to drop coverage altogether, which would leave insurers with a riskier, more costly pool of enrollees. The Congressional Budget Office predicts this could drive up the uninsured population by 4.2 million. Congress could, in theory, renew the enhanced subsidies, but with Republican lawmakers opposed, that appears unlikely. GOP leaders argue that the subsidies inflate premiums and federal spending, and the party's fiscal blueprint calls for ending them. Notably, many recent ACA sign-ups have occurred in Republican-led states, meaning the impact of premium hikes may be felt most acutely in places like Texas, Florida, and Georgia.
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