It's 'a Big Flashing Red Alert' for Democrats

Democrats are losing voters in nearly every state that tracks party registration, signaling a growing crisis and critical turning point for the brand, according to a New York Times analysis. It's based on data from 30 states and Washington, DC. Between 2020 and 2024, Democrats lost 2.1 million registered voters in those states, while Republicans gained 2.4 million—a swing of 4.5 million voters toward the GOP. The trend spans battleground states, solid blue territories, and deep-red regions, making it a nationwide issue rather than a regional one.

In 2018, Democrats accounted for 34% of new registrants and Republicans 20%; by 2024, Republicans led in new sign-ups. In places with partisan registration, the Democratic registration advantage has narrowed sharply, dropping from nearly 11 percentage points in 2020 to just over 6 points in 2024. Notably, the loss is steepest among men and younger voters—two groups that shifted toward President Trump and the Republicans. The erosion is visible in key battlegrounds.

"In Nevada, Democrats suffered the steepest percentage-point plunge of any state but West Virginia between 2020 and 2024," per the Times. And in Pennsylvania, Democrats' 517,310 registration advantage in 2020 has dwindled to 58,530 today. The decline is not just due to voters switching to the GOP—many are registering as independents or not choosing a party at all. But the net effect is a Democratic slide, which one expert describes as "a big flashing red alert." The Hill reports that Democrats are indeed taking note. "I think it should be an alarm" for the party, said Democratic strategist Eddie Vale. "I think it's a real problem."