He's Insanely Slow—and Unreal at Stealing Bases

The Wall Street Journal's description of Josh Naylor's physique isn't exactly glowing. It reports the Seattle Mariner "stands 5-foot-10, is listed at 235 pounds, and has a body type that bears a strange resemblance to a refrigerator." The paper points out that he moves somewhat like a bulking kitchen appliance too: When you rank the sprint speed of Major League Baseball players, he's in the second percentile. But Naylor has defied expectations by becoming MLB's most unlikely base-stealing sensation.

The numbers are eye-popping: Since being traded to Seattle midseason, Naylor has pulled off a perfect 17-for-17 steal streak, bumping his season total to 28 steals in 30 tries. He hasn't been tagged out since April. And then there's this: When the Journal looked at Baseball-Reference data for the National and American leagues, it didn't find any other player who stood less than 6 feet and weighed at least 235 pounds who managed more than just 10 stolen bases in a single season. Indeed, in late August the Athletic reported the other eight active MLB players who weigh that much and stand less than six feet tall have managed seven steals this season—combined.

The secret isn't hidden in his legs, but in his brain, the Journal suspects: First base coach Eric Young Jr. notes that while others may have pure speed, Naylor wins by outthinking opponents—he can "predict" the next pitch and time his jumps, giving him the edge. Naylor's success highlights a truth often overlooked in baseball: Stealing bases is as much about anticipation and guts as it is about foot speed. Modern analytics show that stealing only pays off for those who can succeed over 80% of the time. Naylor easily clears that bar.

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And he's leaning into his prowess with Seattle. As Defector noted in August, Naylor attempted just 13 steals in the 93 games he played with the Arizona Diamondbacks this season. "Someone has let him off the leash" since his trade to the Mariners, Defector quips, "and the results are frightening."