How Coffee Is Drying Up Its Own Future

A new report warns that the global appetite for coffee is putting the industry's future at risk, with a link to deforestation. Per the New York Times, the nonprofit watchdog Coffee Watch looked into the matter in Brazil's key coffee region in the southeast, linking the clearing of forests to declining rainfall, which in turn has led to repeated crop failures and price spikes. Per Reuters, upward of 310,000 hectares of Brazilian land were cleared between 2001 and 2023 specifically to grow coffee plants, with 11 million hectares in total lost in what the report calls the "coffee heartland." The irony, the group notes, is that destroying forests to plant more coffee is threatening the rainfall the crop depends on to survive, creating a downward spiral for farmers and consumers alike.

The report's findings are echoed by recent scientific studies, including one seen last month in Nature Communications, which found that Amazon deforestation had slashed local rainfall by about 75%. Coffee plants are especially sensitive to changes in rain patterns and drought, making the industry vulnerable as climate conditions shift—and Brazil, the world's biggest coffee producer, has seen its once-predictable rains and fertile soil suffer as deforestation continues.

While efforts have been made to slow forest loss, extreme price swings could become routine by 2050 if current trends persist. The issue isn't confined to Brazil, nor is coffee the biggest driver of deforestation—cattle and soy farming claim larger shares. But with global demand for coffee rising, the pressure on forests is growing. Meanwhile, recent European Union rules require coffee producers to prove their beans aren't grown on recently deforested land, a move Brazil has resisted as costly and intrusive.