Israel may have bloodied Iran's forces in June's 12-day war, but it didn't knock out what matters most: missiles that can still reach US troops and allies across the Middle East. Analysts estimate Tehran retains roughly 2,000 medium-range ballistic missiles capable of striking as far as Israel, plus large numbers of shorter-range systems that can hit US bases in the Gulf and ships near the Strait of Hormuz, the Wall Street Journal reports. Add in anti-ship cruise missiles, torpedo boats, and swarms of drones, and Iran still has the means to seriously challenge US assets. "Tehran may be weak, but its robust missile force means it is still lethal," says Behnam Ben Taleblu of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
That's the backdrop as the US moves the USS Abraham Lincoln strike group and additional warplanes into the region while President Trump weighs potential strikes on Iran following the violent crushing of mass protests there and a lack of progress in nuclear talks. Sources tell CNN that Trump is seriously considering a major strike. Iran has vowed to retaliate, saying its "finger is on the trigger." Secretary of State Marco Rubio told lawmakers on Wednesday that 30,000 to 40,000 US troops across multiple bases sit within range of Iranian drones and short-range missiles. Past Iranian responses to US actions have included strikes on bases in Iraq and Qatar, while allied groups such as Yemen's Houthis have targeted sites in Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
Israel's June campaign destroyed a large share of Iran's missile launchers and exposed weaknesses in Tehran's air defenses, but it also pushed Iran to adapt: using more advanced, longer-range missiles from deeper inside its territory and varying attack patterns to improve accuracy, the Journal reports. Even with Patriot and THAAD batteries in place, US and Israeli officials acknowledge that "a significant portion" of Iranian missiles would likely get through, raising the odds that any new US strike could quickly widen into a broader regional confrontation.
Iran has reached out to other countries in the region and Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has said the kingdom will "not allow its airspace or territory to be used for any military actions against Iran or for any attacks from any party, regardless of their origin," the AP reports. The UAE has made a similar promise. The BBC looks at seven possible scenarios if the US strikes Iran, ranging from a transition to democracy after "surgical strikes" to a collapse into chaos and civil war. Another possibility: Iran could lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz, affecting world trade and oil prices.
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