To Get the Copper We Need, Prices Have to Double

Copper, often treated as an economic workhorse, may need luxury-level pricing to keep the world's lights on and cars running. A University of Michigan-led team says the metal's cost must at least double from roughly $13,000 a ton in order to trigger the development of new mines—which we'll need to meet our growing demand for the metal. And as Earth.com notes, the need is pervasive: "Copper quietly supports almost everything people use each day, from the wires inside homes to the charging systems for electric cars."

The analysis, published in Energy Research & Social Science, finds that even under a "business as usual" scenario, annual copper needs will rise from last year's 23 million tons to 37 million tons by 2050. A world that runs entirely on renewables and electric vehicles would require nearly 92 million tons a year. Using project data from mines in Mongolia, Panama, the US, and elsewhere, the researchers estimate that new copper mine developments typically cost more than $22,000 per ton of annual copper output—well above today's prices.

Recycling and lower-grade ores could help, but not nearly enough. The team argues that in addition to higher prices, mining approvals must become faster and more predictable without dropping environmental or community protections. As co-author Adam Simon puts it, "The world is not running out of copper; it is running out of time to produce it. Getting it out of the ground fast enough to meet rapidly growing demand will require immense political prioritization and broad public support for mining."