China just took a red pen to its growth ambitions, setting its slowest official expansion goal in more than three decades. On Wednesday, Beijing announced a 2026 GDP target of 4.5% to 5% at the opening of the annual "two sessions" political gathering, the lowest growth aim since 1991 and the first time that figure has been cut since 2023, when it was taken down to "around 5%," per the BBC. The target lands as the world's No. 2 economy contends with weak consumer spending, a protracted property slump, and intensifying trade strains.
Premier Li Qiang said the new "Five-Year Plan" will push investment into advanced manufacturing, tech, and scientific research, all while trying to get households to open their wallets more. China officially met last year's 5% goal, but other indicators point to softer momentum, with growth slowing to 4.5% in the final quarter. Most provinces have already trimmed their own targets, and Georgetown policy researcher Ning Leng warned the headline numbers should be treated with "a grain of salt." In fact, research firm Rhodium Group suggests that China's economy may have even grown less than 3% in 2025, per the New York Times.
China's record $1.19 trillion trade surplus underscores how dependent it has become on exports—an exposure Washington can sense, Leng says, per the BBC—as the country also juggles higher energy risks and a gradual shift toward renewables. The AP notes that the weeklong congress is anticipated in the next few days to give the green light to the new plan that runs through 2030.
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