Israeli leaders are publicly calling for Iranians to rise up against their government while privately warning Washington that demonstrators would be massacred if they did, per a US diplomatic cable obtained by the Washington Post. The cable, sent from the US Embassy in Jerusalem, says senior Israeli officials told American counterparts that Iran's rulers are "not cracking," that the Revolutionary Guard "has the upper hand," and that large protests would mean people "get slaughtered." The assessment comes as exiled crown prince Reza Pahlavi urges street demonstrations this week for the Chaharshanbe Suri fire festival, per the Post. Iranian authorities are organizing their own demonstrations, urging Iranians to burn effigies of US President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Al Jazeera reports.
Netanyahu this week said Iranians have "a unique opportunity" to "overthrow the regime ... and gain your freedom," per the BBC. President Trump initially urged Iranians to take to the streets, though he's since acknowledged that would be dangerous. Despite the grim outlook, Israeli officials urged the US to be ready to back a popular revolt and cast the ongoing US-Israeli bombing campaign as a way to weaken the regime. The Israeli Embassy in Washington says degrading Iran's military is "to everyone's benefit." But Iran experts quoted by the Post warn that unarmed protesters risk being used as pawns, and that Israel misjudged the regime's staying power after the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, as the war—now in its third week—continues with no clear end.
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