American drivers are once again seeing a number they don't like at the pump: a $4 national average for regular gas. AAA put Tuesday's average at just over $4.01 a gallon, the first time prices have crossed that line since the inflation surge of 2022, when gas ultimately topped $5, reports the Washington Post. This time, the trigger is the war in Iran, which has pushed Brent crude to about $106 per barrel and effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that handles roughly 20% of the world's oil and gas shipments.
The United States isn't facing an immediate shortage, but the global shock is lifting prices nationwide, with the West Coast seeing some of the steepest bills: California's average reached $5.89 per gallon on Tuesday, reports the New York Times. KPMG economist Diane Swonk warns that fuel is only the front edge, telling the Post that higher transportation and production costs are likely to show up next in grocery aisles and elsewhere: "This is only the beginning."
The AP notes that the US Postal Service has already upped some of its prices, with utility costs also at risk of rising. Consumer sentiment slipped almost 6% in March, per the Post. Even if talks with Iran restore traffic through the strait, maritime historian Sal Mercogliano estimates it could take about a week of recovery for every day of the strait's blockage—meaning months before oil markets fully stabilize.
The Trump administration may find it difficult to escape the political fallout. "It is the biggest headache for whoever happens to be in power when something like this happens," former Department of Energy adviser Kate Gordon tells the Times. She says that typically, US presidents don't have much sway over gas prices, but this isn't a case where prices are rising due to a natural disaster or other event beyond Trump's control. "He made the decision to go to war in Iran," Gordon notes.
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