Israel Will Probably Attack Iran Within a Year

There's a "better than 50% chance" that Israel will bomb Iran's suspected nuclear facilities within a year, writes Jeffrey Goldberg at the Atlantic. He reached the conclusion after interviews with dozens of current and former high-ranking Israeli officials, including Benjamin Netanyahu, and doesn't think it's mere rhetoric. He lays out the most plausible scenario along with the potentially cataclysmic consequences—"it will dwarf Afghanistan in significance and complexity"—in his lengthy analysis.

It's possible, of course, that Iran will be persuaded to end its nuke problem before any such strike, but Goldberg says this is more likely: "One day next spring, the Israeli national-security adviser, Uzi Arad, and the Israeli defense minister, Ehud Barak, will simultaneously telephone their counterparts at the White House and the Pentagon, to inform them that their prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has just ordered roughly one hundred F-15Es, F-16Is, F-16Cs, and other aircraft of the Israeli air force to fly east toward Iran." (More Iran stories.)