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analysis

Jul 25, 2008 11:43 AM CDT

Economy May Be McCain's Achilles Heel

He's seen as weak on pocketbook woes, now top priority with voters

(Newser) - Americans are so worried about the economy they’re returning to a pre-9/11 mindset in which pocketbook issues trump national security—and that doesn’t bode well for John McCain, Politico reports. His predicament is beginning to look oddly like the reelection campaigns of George HW Bush and Jimmy Carter:...

Forget the Polls: Obama's a Nov. Shoo-In

OPINION

Jul 21, 2008 3:08 PM CDT

Forget the Polls: Obama's a Nov. Shoo-In

Political scientist's odd metric suggests history is on Democrat's side

(Newser) - It’s hard to reconcile Barack Obama’s narrow lead in the polls with the massive enthusiasm that seems to surround his campaign, so Clive Cook of the Financial Times has some advice: Ignore the polls. Midsummer polls are notoriously worthless, he says. Instead, he touts political scientist Alan Abramowitz’...

Cellphone Users Are Missing From Polls

Jul 14, 2008 7:58 AM CDT

Cellphone Users Are Missing From Polls

Overlooked bloc could give Obama a hidden 2% boost

(Newser) - Pollsters are setting themselves up for an embarrassment, Salon predicts, by using only landlines in surveys, ignoring the 15% of American adults who use only cellphones. That 15% is predominantly young, full of students, and disproportionately black and Hispanic. They are not, in other words, likely McCain voters. Add this...

As Dems Hog Spotlight,
GOP Is Under Siege

May 10, 2008 6:25 PM CDT

As Dems Hog Spotlight, GOP Is Under Siege

Republicans are losing seats held for decades

(Newser) - While Democrats sparkle in the media glare, the Republican Party is quietly crumbling off-stage, Politico reports. President Bush’s numbers are lower than Richard Nixon’s before he resigned, and the GOP is losing House seats that it has held for 20 or 30 years. “The anti-Republican mood is...

Clinton More Likely
to Beat McCain: Poll

Apr 28, 2008 1:10 PM CDT

Clinton More Likely to Beat McCain: Poll

Hillary up 50%-41% on GOP candidate; Obama in virtual tie at 46%-44%

(Newser) - Hillary Clinton opened a commanding lead in a heads-up race against John McCain in the latest AP-Ipsos poll, leading the GOP’s presumptive nominee 50%-41%. Barack Obama, meanwhile, edged McCain just 46%-44%, a statistical tie. Today's numbers are a gift for Clinton, forwarding her argument that she would be more...

Pennsylvania: When a Win Is Not a Win

ANALYSIS

Apr 22, 2008 1:00 PM CDT

Pennsylvania: When a Win Is Not a Win

Clear-cut margin of victory needed to be convincing

(Newser) - Polls agree that Hillary Clinton should win the popular vote today in Pennsylvania, but watchers say that victory won't be clear-cut. Adam Nagourney in the New York Times and Peter Wallsten in the Los Angeles Times predict that while an outright Clinton loss would end her candidacy and a 10-point...

Obama Holds 5-Point Lead
Over Hillary

Apr 5, 2008 5:56 PM CDT

Obama Holds 5-Point Lead Over Hillary

Hopeful grabs rare tie with McCain in Gallup poll

(Newser) - Barack Obama held a 5-point lead over Hillary Clinton in the latest Gallup poll and grabbed a rare 45%-45% tie with John McCain. McCain usually polls higher than either Democrat, and currently edges Clinton 47% to 45%. The numbers are a sign that Obama has overcome his January/February swoon, largely...

Clinton's Approval Rating
Hits 2-Year Low

Apr 1, 2008 2:45 PM CDT

Clinton's Approval Rating Hits 2-Year Low

Fallout from Bosnia controversy figures in; Pa. race tightens

(Newser) - Hillary Clinton's approval rating has dropped to its lowest level since April 2006, with 29% of poll respondents saying they have a very negative opinion of her, compared to 15% for Barack Obama and 12% for John McCain, the Wall Street Journal reports. Another poll released last week shows 29%...

Obama Nails 10-Point
National Lead
in Gallup Poll

Mar 31, 2008 4:43 AM CDT

Obama Nails 10-Point National Lead in Gallup Poll

It's his biggest margin this year

(Newser) - Barack Obama jumped to his largest national lead of the year in a new Gallup poll, pulling ahead of Hillary Clinton 52% to 42%. The figure marks the Illinois senator’s third consecutive lead, and the first double-digit lead since Hillary chalked up a 11% lead over Barack in early...

In Democrats' Primary Mess, Democracy Is Real Loser

OPINION

Mar 24, 2008 2:19 PM CDT

In Democrats' Primary Mess, Democracy Is Real Loser

Front-loaded slate had too many vote too soon

(Newser) - Info on the Democratic candidates is pouring out, too late for most voters to get much out of it, Walter Shapiro complains in Salon. "Most Democratic voters will have chosen between Clinton and Obama back in February," he gripes, and the voting that produced Obama's delegate lead is...

Obama Recalls Sparring With Preacher

Mar 24, 2008 10:41 AM CDT

Obama Recalls Sparring With Preacher

Candidate says he had to 'agree to disagree' with Wright

(Newser) - “This is not a crackpot church,” Barack Obama told a conservative Philadelphia radio host in an interview defending Trinity Church, Politico reports. The Democratic hopeful says that despite Rev. Jeremiah Wright’s “very offensive views,” he built “one of the finest churches in Chicago. Witness...