Nate Silver – News Stories About Nate Silver - Page 5

O'Donnell Win Ruins Odds
of GOP Takeover

Nate Silver

Sep 17, 2010 7:24 AM CDT

O'Donnell Win Ruins Odds of GOP Takeover

Forecasting model gives them just a 15% chance

(Newser) - Just how much did Christine O’Donnell’s win hurt the Republicans’ cause? A lot, says forecasting savant Nate Silver of the New York Times . According to Silver’s model, the chances of a Republican Senate takeover have plummeted from 26% to just 15%. Based on current polls, Silver gives...

Why New York's Tea Party Win Matters

Opinion Roundup

Sep 15, 2010 1:58 PM CDT

Why New York's Tea Party Win Matters

Carl Paladino may be even more trouble for GOP than O'Donnell

(Newser) - Christine O'Donnell got the most press (click here to see) but tea party favorite Carl Paladino's win in New York might have been an even bigger upset. Here's what the pundits are saying:

“The Republican Party of New York is now officially dead,” writes Dan Collins of the

...

What O'Donnell's Win Means

Opinion Roundup

Sep 15, 2010 7:52 AM CDT

What O'Donnell's Win Means

Pundits make sense of the morning after

(Newser) - Christine O'Donnell's primary victory has rocked the political world. Here's what the pundits are saying:

Delaware native Dave Weigel “cannot remember a time when Mike Castle wasn't being elected to something.” Without his cross-party appeal, the GOP is doomed in Delaware, he writes in Slate . “No one

...

GOP Likely
to Control 30
Governors' Seats

NATE SILVER

Sep 4, 2010 9:08 AM CDT

GOP Likely to Control 30 Governors' Seats

National wind could boost Republicans' chances locally

(Newser) - Republicans are smelling blood in the November elections, and part of the bleeding is likely to come from governors' mansions across the country, writes Nate Silver over at what used to be FiveThirtyEight.com. The GOP could well end up in control of 30 governors seats—up from its current...

Ousting Murkowski Is
a Huge Coup for Tea Party

Analysis

Sep 1, 2010 8:50 AM CDT

Ousting Murkowski Is a Huge Coup for Tea Party

There's little danger of a general election backlash

(Newser) - Tea Party candidates have been accused of hurting Republican chances in some races, but in ousting Alaska’s Lisa Murkowski it’s “on much firmer tactical ground,” writes Nate Silver of the New York Times . Murkowski’s not an “authentically moderate senator such as Olympia Snowe and...

Democrats' Grip
on Senate
Getting
Shakier

Nate Silver

Aug 26, 2010 2:31 PM CDT

Democrats' Grip on Senate Getting Shakier

There's a 20% chance they'll lose control

(Newser) - All of a sudden, the Democrats’ grip on the Senate is looking a whole lot more tenuous. According to Nate Silver’s latest number-crunching, there’s a 20% chance the Democrats will lose the Senate outright. Even if they hang on as expected, they’re likely to take heavy losses,...

Gay-Marriage Support
Snowballing

Nate Silver

Aug 12, 2010 11:42 AM CDT

Gay-Marriage Support Snowballing

Public now probably split about 50-50

(Newser) - Public support for gay marriage seems to be rapidly increasing based on an analysis of polling data dating back to 1988, according to FiveThirtyEight polling guru Nate Silver. According to a regression analysis, about 49% of the country probably now favors gay marriage, while 50% are opposed, which is “...

Why Kennedy Will
Back Gay Rights

Nate Silver

Aug 5, 2010 11:08 AM CDT

Why Kennedy Will Back Gay Rights

He'll be thinking of legacy, and 50 years out this will be obviously right

(Newser) - Now that a federal judge has ruled in favor of overturning Proposition 8, all eyes are on the Supreme Court, and more specifically, on one man: Anthony Kennedy. The perennial swing voter seems likely to swing this case, too, and Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com thinks he’ll swing it...

Democrats' Fuzzy Math:
We Can't Lose!

Nate Silver

Jul 29, 2010 12:50 PM CDT

Democrats' Fuzzy Math: We Can't Lose!

According to memo, Republican House takeover is impossible

(Newser) - Democrats might just be getting delusional about their chances in November. In a memo sent to the Washington Post yesterday, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee argued that it was, like, virtually impossible for the Republicans to take the House. In their minds, Democrats are guaranteed to win four Republican seats,...

Nate Silver Bares His Own JournoList Posts

Jul 22, 2010 12:21 PM CDT

Nate Silver Bares His Own JournoList Posts

In what may be the first of many confessionals

(Newser) - With the Daily Caller basically making a business out of leaking comments from emails from the JournoList—a supposedly private email list for left-leaning journalists. So list member Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com decided to go through his own log of 150 or so posts, looking for inflammatory, damning and...

Pentagon Blew $4.4M on Useless 'Gaydar' Survey

Nate Silver

Jul 12, 2010 9:11 AM CDT

Pentagon Blew $4.4M on Useless 'Gaydar' Survey

Survey just tests unit cohesion, homophobia

(Newser) - The Pentagon is coming under fire for blowing $4.4 million on a survey that asks troops various questions about Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell. Many are calling the poll biased—“It is simply impossible to imagine a survey with such derogatory and insulting wording, assumptions, and insinuations,...

LeBron Made a
Costly 'Decision'

Nate Silver

Jul 9, 2010 1:55 PM CDT

LeBron Made a Costly 'Decision'

Unpopular move could cost James lots of sponsorships

(Newser) - Maybe LeBron James really does only care about winning, because if he cares about his money or his image, he’s made a really big mistake. LeBron’s Q rating, which measures how many people know and favorably view a person, was a stratospheric 34 until the decision to leave...

Don't Trust Any Poll That Omits Cellphones

Nate Silver

May 24, 2010 1:33 PM CDT

Don't Trust Any Poll That Omits Cellphones

They're ignoring 25% of the populace

(Newser) - Yeah, it's expensive, but pollsters need to start calling cellphones. According to the latest CDC data, 23% of US adults, or 25% of US households are cellphone-only, writes Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com . Add in “cellphone-mostly” households and that jumps to 40%—and it could be even higher by...

Fast Food Worse Than
the Double Down

Fast Food Worse Than the Double Down

Nate Silver finds the KFC monstrosity is really only average

(Newser) - So by now you've heard of—or God help you, sampled—the gluttonous monstrosity known as KFC's Double Down , but how does it stack up in the less-than-healthy world of fast food? Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight runs the numbers, creating an index of fat, cholesterol, and sodium in which the...

50 Best Places
to Live in New York

Nate Silver

Apr 12, 2010 12:23 PM CDT

50 Best Places to Live in New York

Number cruncher devises elaborate system to rate neighborhoods on satisfaction

(Newser) - If you live in New York, the fact that Nate Silver has concluded that Park Slope is the most "satisfying" neighborhood in the city is hot stuff—especially if you own real estate in Park Slope. But if you don't, what's pretty hot is the methodology the numbers genius...

Dems' Enthusiasm High,
but Republicans' Higher

nate silver

Apr 8, 2010 11:48 AM CDT

Dems' Enthusiasm High, but Republicans' Higher

(Newser) - New polling shows record enthusiasm for the midterm elections, particularly among Republican voters. Among Democrats, 57% are “more enthusiastic than usual” about November, the highest percentage Gallup has ever recorded for them in a midterm. The problem? Republicans stand at a whopping 69%. This is obviously not great news...

Don't Get Too Excited Over Just One Poll

NATE SILVER

Mar 24, 2010 1:43 PM CDT

Don't Get Too Excited Over Just One Poll

It's too early to tell if bump in support for reform will stick

(Newser) - Much ado has been made over yesterday's Gallup poll, which showed 49% in favor of the health care bill to 40% opposed, but Republicans shouldn't freak out just yet, writes Nate Silver. Yes, it shows a big increase in support for reform, but it's just one poll, "and even...

Obama's Pull
in Home Districts
Swayed Reps' Votes

NATE SILVER

Mar 22, 2010 11:22 AM CDT

Obama's Pull in Home Districts Swayed Reps' Votes

Obama's share of vote in 2008 best predictor of House Democrats' positions

(Newser) - Barack Obama may have sown the seeds to last night's victory with the one in 2008: House Democrats in districts Obama carried were much more likely to vote in favor of health reform. Retiring members aside, Nate Silver writes, “all 12 Democrats running in a place where Obama received...

Democrats Who Vote 'No'
May Be Vulnerable

NATE SILVER

Mar 16, 2010 12:22 PM CDT

Democrats Who Vote 'No' May Be Vulnerable

Nate Silver identifies 10 seats, 6 in NY, subject to primary challenge

(Newser) - Some House Democrats could be in a pickle when it comes to reelection this year if they don’t vote for the health care reform bill this week, writes Nate Silver. He’s identified 10 who might face primary challenges based on their ambivalence about the legislation, pressure from activist...

US Dominates New Sports,
Old Soviet Strongholds

NATE SILVER on medal count

Mar 1, 2010 11:44 AM CST

US Dominates New Sports, Old Soviet Strongholds

US, Asia make radical gains over former Soviet Union in classic events

(Newser) - Nate Silver hears the “cynical perspectives” on the US’ record take of 37 medals at the Vancouver Olympics: that newfound dominance is based on the inclusion of “new-fangled sports" like snowboarding and short-track. It’s not particularly valid. If you look only at events contested in the 1988...