The lifetime risk of developing dementia is higher than earlier thought and with Americans living longer, new cases are set to double to 1 million a year by 2060, researchers say. According to a study published in the journal Nature Medicine, the average person's risk of developing dementia after age 55 is 42%. The lifetime risk is 35% among men and 48% among women, largely because women live longer. Previous estimates were up to 14% among men and 23% among women, the researchers say. The rate is slightly higher among Black Americans—44%, compared to 41% for white people, according to the study.
"If you start at age 55 and go forward until your 95th birthday, there are two options: You die before dementia, or you get to dementia before death," says researcher Josef Coresh, per the Washington Post.
- Coresh says the risk of developing dementia between 55 and 75 is only around 4%, but it climbs steeply after that, especially after age 85.
- Alzheimer's disease is the most common form of dementia, accounting for around 80% of cases, the AP notes. Other forms include vascular dementia, in which heart problems or small strokes impair blood flow to the brain.
- The study looked at more than 15,000 people who were tracked for more than 20 years, NBC News reports. Experts described the study as "very important" and said it detected the higher rate of lifetime risk because patients were tracked for a long time and it included a more diverse group of participants than earlier studies.
- Researchers say there are many ways in which people can reduce their risk of developing dementia, including stopping smoking, exercising more, avoiding obesity, and reducing their blood pressure. "All of our research suggests what you do in midlife really matters," Coresh says. Coresh and other experts say other important factors in reducing dementia risk include reducing social isolation, treating hearing loss, and taking steps to avoid head injuries.
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