Russian Interference Fails to Sway Moldova

Moldova's pro-Western governing party has won a clear parliamentary majority, defeating pro-Russian groups in an election that was widely viewed as a stark choice between East and West. With nearly all polling station reports counted on Monday, electoral data showed the pro-EU Party of Action and Solidarity, or PAS, had 50.1% of the vote, while the pro-Russian Patriotic Electoral Bloc has 24.2%, per the AP. The Russia-friendly Alternativa Bloc came third, followed by the populist Our Party. The right-wing Democracy at Home party also won enough votes to enter parliament.

The tense ballot Sunday pitted the governing PAS against several Russia-friendly opponents but no viable pro-European partners. Electoral data indicate the party will hold a clear majority of about 55 of the 101 seats in the legislature. It is likely that President Maia Sandu, who founded PAS in 2016, will opt for some continuity by nominating pro-Western Prime Minister Dorin Recean, an economist who has steered Moldova's government through multiple crises since 2023. Recean has also previously served as Sandu's defense and security adviser.

The election was widely viewed as a geopolitical choice for Moldovans: between a path to the European Union or a drift back into Moscow's fold. Cristian Cantir, a Moldovan associate professor of international relations at Oakland University, told the AP that PAS' victory is "a clear win for pro-European forces in Moldova, which will be able to ensure continuity in the next few years in the pursuit of their ultimate goal of EU integration." But he noted "Moldova will continue to be in a difficult geopolitical environment characterized by Russia's attempts to pull it back into its sphere of influence."

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Moldovan authorities repeatedly claimed Russia was conducting a vast "hybrid war" to try to sway the outcome of Sunday's high-stakes ballot. The alleged Russian schemes included orchestrating a large-scale vote-buying scheme, conducting more than 1,000 cyberattacks on critical government infrastructure so far this year, a plan to incite riots around Sunday's election, and a sprawling disinformation campaign online to sway voters. Moldova applied to join the EU in 2022 in the wake of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and was granted candidate status that year. Brussels agreed to open accession negotiations last year.