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Israel's 'Decapitation' Strategy Carries Its Own Risks

Israeli campaign keeps picking off Iranian leaders and top officials
Posted Mar 18, 2026 10:01 AM CDT
Israel Keeps Picking Off Iran's Leaders. Will It Backfire?
A security guard stands at right, near a portrait of the late Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Baghdad, Iraq, Monday, March 9, 2026.   (AP Photo/Hadi Mizban)

First came Khamenei. And in the weeks since, Israel has tracked down and killed other top Iranian officials, with more big names falling this week. This "decapitation" strategy is meant to destabilize and demoralize the remaining leadership in Iran, and possibly encourage ordinary Iranians to revolt. Whether it will work or backfire is the big question. Coverage:

  • More coming: Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu made a jokey video with Mike Huckabee, the US ambassador to Israel, in which the men laugh about crossing names off Netanyahu's "punch card" of targets, reports the Hill. "Today, I erased two names on the punch card, and you see how many more to go on this batch?" asks Netanyahu.
  • The list: Axios has a complete roundup of those killed so far.

  • Working? The Wall Street Journal reports that "a sense of disorder is starting to take hold" in Iran because of the killings. The story notes that intensive bombing of compounds has forced leaders to change their meeting places to less secure locations. And it was a "tip from ordinary Iranians" that led to the fatal strike this week on Ali Larijani, the nation's top security official, according to the story. It has details on the operation to track top officials in their hideouts.
  • Skepticism: Others aren't so sure, arguing that high-profile killings of individuals won't make a difference in the long run. "Decapitation has its limitations," Danny Citrinowicz, a former head of the Iran branch of Israeli military intelligence, tells the New York Times. "I don't think we've scratched the surface in the ability of Iran to find replacements that can take over for the people that have been decapitated."
  • Unintended consequences: Skeptics also wonder about who will replace these men. Larijani, for instance, was seen as pragmatic, and he could be replaced by a more violent hard-liner or generally boost the prospects of the militant Revolutionary Guard. "Israel seems to be turning its attention to targeting those that could push for a political solution to overcome Iran's troubles at home and abroad," Ellie Geranmayeh, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, tells NBC News.

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